#projects |
#Risks |
type |
delivery method |
size |
|
4 |
147 |
All |
All |
Less than 500 M |
|
Number |
Risk |
Frequency |
Prob |
Cost |
Schedule |
1 |
market conditions at bid time different than assumed in the base |
100 |
0.40 |
0.3 |
|
2 |
delayed utility relocations (other than pg&e transmission) |
100 |
0.22 |
|
0.80 |
3 |
funding delays (e.g., due to delayed bond issuance) |
100 |
0.50 |
1.00 |
12.00 |
4 |
legal challenges |
100 |
0.18 |
0.63 |
1.85 |
5 |
additional mitigation for construction impacts (not captured elsewhere) |
100 |
0.50 |
1.50 |
|
6 |
design concept not accepted by the public requiring resubmission and schedule delay |
100 |
0.49 |
1.74 |
0.56 |
7 |
issues associated with environmental permits |
100 |
0.50 |
0.88 |
1.53 |
8 |
other changes to pavement design assumptions (not captured separately) |
100 |
|
|
|
9 |
additional hazardous or contaminated materials identified during preliminary investigation |
100 |
0.50 |
0.25 |
1.50 |
10 |
environmental, conservation easement to mitigate for other waters impacts cannot be obtained |
75 |
0.75 |
1.25 |
3.75 |
11 |
preferred construction technique for the girard road depressed section may not be allowed due to artesian conditions and concerns by the presidion trust about groundwater disturbance and proximity to buildings. |
75 |
0.63 |
5.51 |
0.93 |
12 |
the proposed tunnels could be too long and require a full mechanical ventilation. |
75 |
0.90 |
1.00 |
|
13 |
aggregate minor risks (assumed to be ~20% of aggregate major risks - listed below) |
75 |
|
|
|
14 |
changed bridge foundation design due to geotechnical information (other structures than addressed separately) |
75 |
|
-1.50 |
|
15 |
demolition delayed due to environmental factors |
75 |
0.50 |
1.58 |
0.47 |
16 |
delayed agreements or approvals from other stakeholders (e.g., kern county) |
75 |
|
|
|
17 |
additional cost for commercial right of way |
75 |
|
1.00 |
|
18 |
all segments weather related interruptions to construction |
75 |
0.58 |
0.29 |
2.33 |
19 |
miscellaneous change orders and claims (not captured elsewhere) |
75 |
|
2.00 |
|
20 |
racine railroad crossing |
75 |
0.10 |
0.01 |
1.20 |
21 |
delayed completion of final environmental documentation / pr (incl. section 106 / shpo process) |
75 |
0.50 |
|
1.50 |
22 |
extraordinary change in fuel prices (in addition to escalation and base uncertainties) |
75 |
|
0.50 |
|
23 |
delayed approval of design exceptions |
75 |
0.70 |
3.92 |
1.31 |
24 |
the request from golden gate bridge district (ggbd) to add a merchant ramp design to doyle dr |
75 |
0.30 |
1.51 |
0.84 |
25 |
contaminant levels greater than anticipated leading to increased costs and potential schedule delay |
75 |
0.50 |
1.73 |
0.47 |
26 |
anticipated but as yet undetermined revisions to traffic and life safety code could necessitate redesign for tunnel and potentially additional cost for tunnel safety systems. |
50 |
0.70 |
6.98 |
|
27 |
tsunami criteria revised necessitating redesign of structures, recommendation from hydraulics |
50 |
0.50 |
1.26 |
0.47 |
28 |
contaminant levels greater than anticipated leading to increased costs and potential schedule delay |
50 |
0.50 |
0.99 |
0.23 |
29 |
integrated design team too large resulting in unallocated scope or lack of coordination |
50 |
0.50 |
1.26 |
0.47 |
30 |
noise and vibration from construction (ed contemplates most restrictive condition) |
50 |
0.50 |
0.45 |
|
31 |
cultural resources programmatic agreement not completed on time resulting in a project delivery milestone delay |
50 |
0.40 |
1.05 |
0.37 |
32 |
presidio trust is nonresponsive leading to delays in project delivery milestones |
50 |
0.50 |
5.04 |
1.87 |
33 |
federal land transfer is unenforceable and results in delays to the project and increased cost. |
50 |
0.50 |
5.04 |
1.87 |
34 |
integration with presidio trust (pt) could facilitate pt's internal decision making and save time and cost |
50 |
0.70 |
7.84 |
2.61 |
35 |
the risk of the siesmic status of the marina viaduct giving that the 10 years interm of 1995 |
50 |
0.10 |
|
|
36 |
the pt demand not to treat them as a private property rather focus on the sufficiency issue. |
50 |
|
40.00 |
|
37 |
the demand of nps to design the structural excavation to provide a symmetric seepage of the natural water flow (cross tunnels) |
50 |
|
0.50 |
|
38 |
the risk of the rehabilitation condition of the presidio viaduct due to the steel member erosion. |
50 |
0.30 |
|
|
39 |
amongst all the design exception the "inside" shoulder exception and the potential justification. |
50 |
0.90 |
|
2.70 |
40 |
the intended submittal list of the "design exceptions" for alternative "5" and potential taking it for granted |
50 |
0.80 |
|
2.40 |
41 |
the "purpose and need" statement inclusion of the access concept to doyle drive design |
50 |
0.45 |
|
1.50 |
42 |
the pursing of spur of the "half circle" drive design concept to the eastern end of the proposed doyle dr |
50 |
|
0.07 |
|
43 |
the veteran cemetery categorizing by federal regulation as an "a" or "b" for scarcity purposes |
50 |
0.30 |
|
0.00 |
44 |
cultural resources (native american burials, artifacts, historic bldg foundation) discovered during construction/utility relocation leading to schedule delay and increased cost. |
50 |
0.30 |
0.84 |
0.28 |
45 |
all segments drought conditions limit the availability of water needed to perform construction realted activities |
50 |
0.50 |
1.50 |
0.01 |
46 |
raise profile of girard depressed section |
50 |
0.50 |
4.50 |
|
47 |
may be able to negotiate with ggdthd to reduce or eliminate payments for lost revenue reducing project costs |
50 |
0.50 |
2.25 |
|
48 |
oneida south storm sewer tie in |
50 |
0.25 |
0.13 |
0.00 |
49 |
real estate cost contingency |
50 |
1.00 |
2.50 |
0.00 |
50 |
right of way litigation |
50 |
1.00 |
1.60 |
0.00 |
51 |
pcb removal requirements |
50 |
0.50 |
0.25 |
0.00 |
52 |
program delay or change |
50 |
0.25 |
0.01 |
3.00 |
53 |
additional wick drains at racine |
50 |
0.90 |
2.25 |
8.10 |
54 |
racine rd access alternatives |
50 |
0.75 |
0.38 |
0.00 |
55 |
llbdm pcb capped area permitting |
50 |
0.20 |
0.00 |
0.20 |
56 |
extra earthwork costs |
50 |
0.50 |
0.50 |
0.00 |
57 |
utility second moves & utility accelerated schedule adjustments |
50 |
0.75 |
0.75 |
0.00 |
58 |
potential noise wall in nw quadrant of system interchange |
50 |
0.50 |
0.30 |
0.00 |
59 |
geotech related costs - settlement |
50 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
60 |
oneida storm water separation |
50 |
0.10 |
0.15 |
0.00 |
61 |
contract modifications (cco's) |
50 |
1.00 |
19.30 |
0.00 |
62 |
scheduling and funding, stip funding delayed and not available during the anticipated funding year |
50 |
0.38 |
0.75 |
9.00 |
63 |
environmental, cholame segment ca tiger salamander found within project area |
50 |
0.05 |
0.50 |
0.20 |
64 |
environmental, all segments unanticipated cultural findings unearthed during construction |
50 |
0.38 |
0.16 |
1.00 |
65 |
right of way and utilities, wye segment issues negotiating with hearst ranch re: potential conservation easement |
50 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.75 |
66 |
right of way and utilities, all segments utility relocation does not occur prior to construction |
50 |
0.50 |
0.50 |
1.50 |
67 |
right of way and utilities, all segments right of way unable to certify the project before advertising |
50 |
0.25 |
1.00 |
1.50 |
68 |
design, segment bicycle access at 41/46 interchange may require additional facilities to accommodate movements |
50 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
0.02 |
69 |
pavement, all segments-crcp, superpave pavement spec changes late in ps&e stage |
50 |
0.25 |
0.75 |
0.75 |
70 |
structures and geo tech, soils |
50 |
0.30 |
0.60 |
0.90 |
71 |
transfer risk of haz waste (hazardous materials) to army |
50 |
0.15 |
0.75 |
|
72 |
recycle doyle drive for subbase and fill - opportunity pt relax restrictions on fill |
50 |
0.70 |
3.92 |
|
73 |
the purpose and need statement has been diluted to add many "non- transportation" issues that has been inserted by nps & presidio trust |
50 |
|
15.00 |
|
74 |
alternative (5) design proposal in the "half circle" drive to force the construction of a parking lot for the palace of fine art, due to the intake of the drive to the ground level parking |
50 |
|
2.25 |
|
75 |
presidio trust (pt) and the veteran affair (va) on noise reduction measure of the future facility close to cemetery |
50 |
|
1.30 |
|
76 |
kern river water level higher than anticipated |
50 |
|
|
|
77 |
archaeological and paleontological discoveries during construction |
50 |
|
|
|
78 |
changed assumptions for aesthetics and landscaping |
50 |
|
|
|
79 |
re designa of sr 99 as interstate (design change) |
50 |
|
|
|
80 |
nps(national park service) insistence to treat a 100% of the storm water during and after construction |
50 |
|
3.60 |
|
81 |
contract procurement delays (e.g., addenda, protests, re-bids, etc.) |
50 |
|
|
|
82 |
changed project phasing, packaging or delivery method |
50 |
|
|
|
83 |
changed traffic control and staging requirements |
50 |
|
|
|
84 |
oil storage relocation issues at carrier canal |
50 |
|
1.50 |
|
85 |
utility work required outside of approved environmental area |
50 |
0.25 |
|
0.75 |
86 |
unquantified utility costs |
50 |
|
|
|
87 |
opportunity for retaining wall optimization with respect to right of way |
50 |
|
|
|
88 |
changed capacity and operational mitigation driven by further traffic analysis |
50 |
|
2.25 |
|
89 |
loss of goodwill |
50 |
|
0.5 |
|
90 |
right of way acquisition delays (due to volume and complexity, etc.) |
50 |
0.25 |
|
1.5 |
91 |
metropolitan bakersfield habitat conservation plan (mbhcp) expiration (habitat bank) |
50 |
0.5 |
|
1.5 |
92 |
unanticipated hazardous materials discovered during construction/ utility relocation leading to increased cost and potential schedule delay |
50 |
0.5 |
0.63 |
0.233333333333333 |
93 |
changed design criteria |
50 |
|
|
|
94 |
additional mitigation for vertical clearance on existing structures |
50 |
|
|
|
95 |
delayed completion of right of way mapping and appraisals |
50 |
|
|
|
96 |
national park service (nps) persist on tennessee hollow expansion that will require change in design |
50 |
|
0.2 |
|
97 |
nps (national park service) presist on using a non-emission construction equipment for air quality control as directed by nps directive memo |
50 |
|
14 |
|
98 |
opportunity for additional design innovation (by designer and/or contractor, not captured elsewhere) |
50 |
|
|
|
99 |
opportunity for contractor-provided borrow source |
50 |
|
|
|
100 |
delays of approval of longitudinal encroachment |
50 |
|
|
|